Showing posts with label wages. Show all posts
Showing posts with label wages. Show all posts

Saturday, October 31, 2015

A Few Brief Remarks on Walmart





A few brief remarks on Walmart

We examine some of the effects of Walmart on a local economy, and the nation’s. There is about one store per 100,000 in the US, each with average revenues of about $110 Million.  The revenue of a small retail establishment is about $3 Million, so a Walmart displaces about 35 small retailers, generally locally owned businesses which previously helped provide much of the community leadership.  If we include the earnings of the owners of these businesses, the payroll of the Walmart is less than that previously provided by the sum of the small retailers, so the employment situation is also worsened when a Walmart moves in. 

This calculation, of course, does not include the benefit of the increased consumer surplus provided by Walmart’s always lower prices.  However, if these benefits are limited to an increase in purchases of consumer goods and services, as we would expect since the consumer surplus is widely dispersed among Walmart customers, we would not expect this to improve the capital situation of the community. Indeed, the value existing capital in the community is severely reduced. Downtown commercial rents, for instance, would be severely depressed, as the value of the buildings themselves.

In compensation for this damage, Walmart paid taxes of  $7 Billion on $22 Billion profits, or 31.8%.  But: Public assistance for its employees cost the US government $6.2  Billion last year, so in effect Walmart paid $800 Million taxes on $15 Billion profits, or slightly over 5%.   If instead it had paid its employees the $6.2 Billion more, so they would not need to collect public assistance, it would still have to pay 31.8% on $15.8 Billion. To raise the salary of their employees $1, roughly, they would have to pay out $2. The people at Walmart Headquarters are probably smart, so presumably they have made this calculation also, and given present government policy, optimized it.   Indeed, as the reference indicates, this is probably general behavior among retailers, and other low wage industries.  An interesting problem for economists. 

This calculation is for 2013:

Many of Walmart's employees did receive a raise last year, somewhere between $1 and $3 so the figures have changed a little.

But not a lot.

 
Fast food companies do pretty much the same thing:

So we're probably talking about a comparable manipulation of their tax bill, as well. Nominally, retailers seem to pay a lot more in taxes than they really do, if we subtract the billions and billions of dollars the government has to fork out to support the retailers'  under-paid employees.  So these retailers are not at all quite the good citizens they try to appear to be.

Clearly, a minimum wage where taxpayers have to supplement  the worker's income for them to reach subsistence is inadequate. 

Edited and corrected: 12/2/2019






Wednesday, July 8, 2015

Education is Insufficient to Maintain US Wages with Unrestricted Trade



A recent post over at Bloomberg Business:' Global Labor Glut Sinking Wages Means U.S. Needs to Get Schooled'  http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-04/global-labor-glut-sinking-wages-means-u-s-needs-to-get-schooled is nonsense.


Education will not maintain US wages in the face of international competition. Once foreign countries are able to supply sufficient basic education, both in quantity and quality, there is nothing to stop them investing in the necessary specialized education needed for their own workers. Information (education) is more transferable than labor. The US cannot embargo the export of information.  The development of skills in foreign countries cannot be prevented. Any advantage in education is transitory, requiring a continuing race of investment in human capital. Further, the cost of education in US is greater than the cost of the same education in foreign countries, the US is at an absolute disadvantage in such a race.  Because education in the US is more expensive, it makes greater sense for international corporations to invest in the education of the foreign workers, rather than American workers.  Finally, the high cost of maintaining and developing capital in the US discourages the investment in education in the US, aggravating the competitive disadvantage in which American labor finds itself. 

In particular, the equalization of factor prices affects those factors more directly exposed to international competition faster than those factors more insulated from direct competition.  (All factors of production are connected, and therefore affected. The price of all factors of production eventually equalize, across borders. However, during the transition stage to the new equilibrium, the relationship of factor prices within the economy is altered.)   In the American case,  because of its substantial trade deficit with low wage so called ‘developing nations,’ the prices of labor and other exposed factors declines faster, while factors such as education and government, (in particular infrastructure, and military,) become relatively more expensive, and more difficult for the rest of the economy to sustain.  On the other hand, in the case of the developing countries themselves, and where they run a substantial surplus, these insulated factors become relatively less expensive, as the prices of the exposed factors rise faster.  Education, (and infrastructure, and the military,) in the developing countries thus becomes relatively inexpensive to capitalize.  Thus, the US is also at a comparative disadvantage in providing education to labor. 

One further aspect is that because the price of American education is increased relative to the rewards, and a greater share of that cost is borne by the individual, the individual is less encouraged to capitalize in himself.  This is aggravated by the fact that, with continued economic destruction because of the deficit, and inequality and resultant decrease in career opportunities, vs mere job opportunities, the chances of advancement through education are reduced anyway, especially for disadvantaged youth.  Indeed, many of these might see the costs, in time and attention, of even a minimal education as not worth the bare rewards this society seems to them to be prepared to offer them.

 The result of these factors is that, over time, US labor's disadvantage will increase, and their wages continue to decline.  This decline in wages will not result in greater competitiveness, because the capitalization of the American labor force will be reduced over the period of factor equalization, and be less than the capitalization of their foreign competitors.

Efforts to educate the American work force will not save American jobs or maintain American wages in the face of international competition.  These efforts are not being made, anyway.

Corrected and slightly expanded version of an earlier post

Wednesday, May 6, 2015

Education is Insufficient to Maintain US Wages


EDIT:  Improved version at: http://anamecon.blogspot.com/2015/07/education-is-insufficient-to-maintain.html


A recent post over at Bloomberg Business:' Global Labor Glut Sinking Wages Means U.S. Needs to Get Schooled'  http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-04/global-labor-glut-sinking-wages-means-u-s-needs-to-get-schooled is nonsense.

From the post: "The most effective way of combating this oversupply [of workers] is to promote increased training and education of U.S. workers so they can provide skills unavailable elsewhere to employers, according to experts who have studied the problem."

Education will not maintain US wages in the face of international competition. Once foreign countries are able to supply sufficient basic education, both in quantity and quality,  there is nothing to stop them investing in the necessary specialized education needed for their own workers... Information (education) is more transferable than labor. .The development of skills in foreign countries cannot be prevented. The US cannot embargo the export of information..Any advantage in education is transitory, requiring a continuing race of investment in human capital.. Further, since the cost of education in US is greater than the cost of the same education in foreign countries, the US is at a disadvantage in such a race. For example, it is economically efficient for foreign countries to import US educators to train their own work force. For the same pay as in US, foreign nations can often supply a much. higher standard of living. And because education in the US is more expensive, it makes greater sense for international corporations to invest in the education of the foreign workers, rather than  American workers.... Finally, the high cost of maintaining and developing capital discourages the investment in education in the US, aggravating the competitive disadvantage in which American labor finds itself. The result of this is that, over time, US labor's disadvantage will increase, and their wages continue to decline.  This decline in wages will not result in greater competitiveness, because of the decrease in the capitalization.of American labor force.

Monday, September 30, 2013

The Lone Star Strategy for National Impoverishment



Angry Bear:
http://angrybearblog.com/2013/09/the-lone-star-strategy-or-the-house-that-conservatives-built.html#more-18416

and Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont
http://www.sanders.senate.gov/newsroom/video-audio/the-lone-star-strategy

itemize some of the features of the Texas Republican Party platform 2012:
http://www.tfn.org/site/DocServer/20...pdf?docID=3201

“1. An orderly transition to individual private retirement accounts and the elimination of Social Security.

2. Privatization of Veterans health care.

3. Abolish all federal agencies who’s activities are not enumerated in the constitution including the department of education and the department of energy.

4. Oppose mandatory kindergarten

5. Abolish the EPA

6. Abolish the 16th amendment and thus get rid of the IRS to be replaced with a national, state collected
sales tax.

7. Abolish the capital gains tax and estate tax.

8. Repeal the minimum wage.”
_______________

Each of these points will transfer wealth and income upward, even the elimination of mandatory kindergarten.  Indeed, what will remain after the implementation of these policies is a rump federal government, incapable of securing even the meanest rights for its poorer citizens. And this will be most of its citizens.  Each agency is an empowerment of the people, a securing of rights they would not otherwise have. The federal government will not be capable of securing the interests of its citizens even within the borders of the country, much less beyond them.

The EPA was established by necessity, unregulated industry having made such a mess of things that rivers burned, and people died from breathing the polluted air.

Privatizing Social Security and Veterans health care is sure to make a few rich, at the expense of many.

Item 6 is obviously regressive, since poor and middle class consume a larger portion of their income, and thus will end up paying a higher percentage of their income as tax than the wealthy.  

 Item 7 will result in the establishment of a moneyed aristocracy, something which is an anathema to a democracy. 

Repealing the minimum wage will create downward pressure on all wages, making the poor poorer, and impoverishing even those who now get by.  It shows the Texas Republicans to be parochial and shortsighted in their thinking, even with regards to their own fortunes.


They make the fallacy of composition.  They imagine that if they cut the expenses of their businesses, which, in one way or another are compensation to the people, they will make greater profit, and be richer.
But by cutting these expenses, they impoverish the people, and they destroy the market for the production of their own farms and factories, and render idle the foundation of their own fortunes. With the Texas strategy, they seek to impoverish everybody, themselves included. 

Thursday, July 11, 2013

Free Trade and Salaries in Academia



Somewhere, perhaps not in this blog, we pointed out that the equalization of factor prices was eventually going to affect the salaries paid to economists in academia.  In labor terms, equalization of factor prices means the wages of workers in different countries with free trade between them are driven to the same level. (Wages are a factor of production, as are the other inputs of production, such as materials and capital.) So when a country with high wages trades with a country with low wages, its wages are driven down. (While in the low wage country, wages are driven up.  However, with the high wage country running a massive trade deficit, it seems that wages in that country are driven down more than the wages in the low wage country are pushed up.)

Now you might think that industries insulated from free trade, such as home-building and medicine and- economics, would not be affected, but this is not the case, although the insulation does delay the effects. However, no part of an economy is truly isolated from any other, and  depression of wages in one sector will eventually affect wages in all sectors.  


This delay has been part of the cause for the relative increase in educational costs and tuition, as in the rest of the country income has stagnated and more recently even declined. In particular, the taxes paid to the states have remained stagnant, and more recently declined, with median income.  The fact that this is also affecting the quality of education, and universities in general, rather than just depressing salaries, is also interesting.  It hasn't affected private universities as much yet, since they are further insulated from the effects of trade, not being as dependent on income from taxation, but it is just a matter of time before they too suffer from degradation.   

This would seem to be part of a general degradation of capital inputs. This may also be because of the chronic trade deficit, rather than merely the effect of the equalization of factor prices.  Net imports of Goods and Services was $560 Billion for 2012. (BEA Table 1.1.5)  That is a trade deficit of 3.5% GDP, which, since it has been persistent for the past 12 years or so, adds up.  See: 
 
The nation’s management at all levels seems to be adversely impacted, as we should expect.  One observation is that, with the Sequester, for example, the Federal Government is going after the wrong deficit.

Sunday, June 30, 2013

Labor's Declining Share



By way of:

This is from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, released June 5.  It shows real wages, real hourly compensation, for Nonfarm Business declined by 5.2% in the first quarter of 2013.  The decline real hourly compensation in manufacturing  was 8.3%.   This wipes out most of the gain in wages for the past year.  Average real wages for Nonfarm Business increased by 0.3% for the past year.

    PRODUCTIVITY AND COSTS
                      First Quarter 2013, Revised 


=======================================================================
Table A. Revised first-quarter 2013 measures: percent change from previous quarter at annual rate 
         (Q to Q) and from same quarter a year ago (Y to Y)
         
Sector          Nonfarm                           Durable    Nondurable
                Business  Business    Manufactu   Manufactu  Manufactu
              QtoQ  YtoY  QtoQ YtoY   QtoQ YtoY   QtoQ YtoY  QtoQ YtoY
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
 
Productivity    0.5  0.9   2.0  1.2    3.5  1.6    3.5  2.7   3.9  0.5
Output          2.1  2.4   3.1  2.4    5.3  2.5    6.4  3.8   4.2  1.2
Hours           1.6  1.5   1.1  1.2    1.8  0.9    2.8  1.0   0.2  0.7
Hourly 
 compensation  -3.8  2.0  -3.1  2.3   -6.9  4.5   -8.1  5.4  -4.9  2.7
Real hourly 
 compensation  -5.2  0.3  -4.6  0.6   -8.3  2.8   -9.4  3.6  -6.4  1.0
Unit labor 
 costs         -4.3  1.1  -5.0  1.1  -10.0  2.8  -11.2  2.6  -8.5  2.3
=======================================================================

Not going to have a recovery until you get money into the hands of labor, which most businesses seem to be trying to prevent.  Note the increase in productivity, year over year three times the Y over Y increase in labor costs.  Good news for the wealthy:  More stuff, but not so much more competition for buying it.

The National Memo does a nice discussion of increasing inequality over the past few years, and fires a few deserved shots at the Main Stream Media for ignoring this item.

Here's the long term story, in a couple of graphs: An index of the long term labor share of national income:

 And a graph of the ratio of the real compensation per hour to output per hour, for non-farm labor.



This is labor getting less of what it is producing, and it has to go somewhere. Maybe a little old, but still important.

Tuesday, June 26, 2012

Regulating Oligopoly and Oligopsony



Regulating Oligopoly and Oligopsony

Having concluded there was a need to regulate oligopoly and oligopsony, ( http://anamecon.blogspot.com/2012/03/on-need-for-regulation-of-oligopoly-and.html ) we discuss some ways how it might be done. Other suggestions are welcome.

The problem is the oligopolist produces less than the competitive equilibrium, and at a higher price, while the oligopsonist buys less than the competitive equilibrium, and at a lower price.
 
In dealing with oligopy we wish to decide which oligopies are most damaging.  Those in elastic markets, for instance, would be naturally limited in their ability to extract rents, while those in inelastic markets would have greater opportunity, and given the situation, inclination, to do so.  Similarly, the costs of entry to a market would also set limits on how much extra normal profit could be collected. Low entry costs would limit the extra normal profits to low levels, since higher profits would encourage the entry of other firms into the market.

With damaging oligopy, one way is simply to tax the results. A problem here is getting the receipts back to the damaged parties.  Another problem with this solution is that it would not affect the oligopist’s equilibrium, to produce at higher prices and lower quantity produced than at competitive equilibrium for oligopoly, and to buy at lower prices paid for and a lower quantity than at competitive equilibrium for oligopsony. That is, it would not eliminate bottlenecks in an economy. As may be, this approach would be to tax extra normal profits at a punitive rate, say, 90% of profits over 6% (allowing for a 3% inflation rate.)  The point is, by the time oligopy is manifest, the market is relatively fixed in proportion to the economy as a whole. Yet because of the price scheme of the oligopy, the market is defective in size to the economy, and the rent collected goes into the bank, ie taken out of the economy at large, or goes into buying up assets in the economy at large, increasing the proportion of ownership of the oligop, at the expense of the other members of the economy.  So one would wish to force the oligopy to grow to proportion of and at the growth rate of the economy as a whole.  (This is a mature market problem, not a growing market one.  It is not a problem of a company expanding into an open market, such as Apple, with its product innovations.  Extra normal profits here can still be a problem to an economy, and lead to alterations in the distribution of wealth and power.  But the reinvestment of extra normal profits in plant is also necessary to expand production to meet the demand a smaller company cannot reasonably fulfill.) 

What is desired is that normal profits are allowed to be reinvested in the oligopy, while extra normal profits are returned to the economy at large.  In oligopoly, one might gear the tax to be scaled at 6% on profit per unit produced, (with a 3% nominal rate of inflation, and a 3% rate of growth.). This would be effectively a progressive VAT, or value added tax, on the ologopoly.  This would incentivize the oligopolist to produce to competitive equilibrium, since the maximum profit would then be proportional to quantity produced. (Actually this by itself wouldn’t quite work, as the oligopolist would just be encouraged to internalize costs, so as to reduce his ‘profit’ to the 6%.)   

Another is to institute price floors in the case of oligopsony, or price ceilings in the case of oligopoly, at what one would hope to be nearer the equilibrium price for a perfectly competitive market. One example of price floors, with oligopsonies, is with minimum wage laws.

A problem here seems to be that one loses the use of price signals, although this is actually not a problem with oligopy, since the quantity traded is no longer responsive to prices anyhow.  Or more correctly, the price becomes fixed, and unresponsive over a large variation of economic conditions. In any case, over a large variation, price and quantity do not respond to the demands of the economy. While these price levels could just be legislated, probably a more efficient method would be a competitive buyer, in the case of oligopsony, or a competitive producer, in the case of oligopoly.  In the case of oligopoly, another option might be to subsidize production.  This option, subsidizing production, would fail, however, in all cases but the mildest kinks, that is, where there were numerous competitors in the oligopoly, (or hardly like an oligopoly at all.)  This is because, with a severe kink, the vertical part of the Marginal Cost MC curve extends through the price axis, or at least very close, and thus all or most of the cost of production would have to be subsidized in order to encourage an increase in quantity produced.  Otherwise, the quantity for profit maximization would not change. This would still be useful, in cases like health care, where the goal was universal coverage.  See: http://anamecon.blogspot.com/2010/03/real-problem-with-health-care-in-us.html

Similarly, just buying up large quantities from the oligopoly would be very expensive, since you would be buying at the oligopolist’s price, and providing him his extra normal profit, as is in fact the current US government policy with respect to the health care industry.  Policy should be to force the oligopolist to sell at a price nearer the equilibrium price.  Again, the situation with health care is different, since if you want universal coverage, you want to drive the oligopolist’s price to near zero, and to do so must effectively subsidize the entire production.  That is, make health care a public good. 

In the case of oligopsony, by competitive, we mean a buyer who buys sufficient goods to drive the price up to what it would be under competitive equilibrium.  This buyer would constitute a regulator.  And what would the signals be, that this regulator would look for?  He would seek a normal profit for suppliers. (This assumes that for firms facing the oligopsony, there is no barrier to entry.  If there were such a barrier, we would expect the situation to evolve into one of oligopoly facing oligopsony. Does such a market exist at a competitive equilibrium?  It would seem to depend on the relative elasticities of the supply and demand.)

One way this might be shown would be an equilibrium in firms entering and leaving the market.  This shows how the quantity of suppliers might also be regulated. By increasing the price and quantity bought, firms would be encouraged to enter the market.  By reducing the price and quantity bought, firms would be encouraged to exit the market.

The idea of government being a last resort buyer of labor suggests an alternative to minimum wage laws.  The government would enter the labor market and act as a monopsonist, and bid up wages until the unemployment rate was down to desired levels.  Private industries would have to pay this rate also, or lose employees to the government.

The situation would seem to be more difficult with oligopoly.  The problem with the government producing to competitive equilibrium is that governments are notorious for producing inferior products.  Another problem, as in agriculture and education, is what the government actually does.  That is the government subsidizes production into the face of oligopsonies.   This results in producing a surplus of goods into a buyers market, driving down the prices.  (Indeed, the prices have been driven down so low, in the case of education, that buyers, the institutions of higher education, must be paid to accept most of the production of public education. The prices are negative.  This is an alternative way of looking at the distribution of pricings and cost burdens in education.  On the other end, businesses refuse to pay the universities for the production of the universities, their graduates.  They do not send clear signals as to what they want, except in a few career specific employment and unemployment rates. 

One way to rein in oligopoly is to promote the production of substitute goods.  The development and subsidy of alternative energy sources, for instance, would moderate the action of oil and coal oligopolists, which is one of the reasons they oppose alternative energy sources so fiercely.
   
As another alternative, the government could employ the aggressive use of anti-trust legislation, to prevent the formation of oligopoly. Probably a figure of providing 20% of the market would constitute a member of an oligopoly.  Thus, keeping firms below that size would prevent the kink from becoming too pronounced.  A problem arises, when the oligopoly faces oligopsony, or monopsony, as in retail supermarket chains, with their limited shelf space.   By hindering one, one encourages the other, and oligopsony can be as socially destructive as oligopoly.   

Another possible solution is to separate the functions of the oligopy, making one part into a quasi-utility, and eliminating costs of entry to the other function.  Thus, for instance, (as was done with British rail) providers of cable TVcould be separated into parts, one which merely operated and maintained the cable, and the other which provided the content, paying the operators of the cable a fee.  The operator would be a regulated monopoly, and the content providers would be competitive, the costs of entry, one of the prerequisites for oligopoly, minimized.  The same could be done with cell phones, the towers being regulated, and selling their bandwidth, which they would seek to maximize, for a fee.

Health care in the US is an instance of oligopoly. Actually it is an instance of several different oligopolies.  One is medical equipment supply.  Another is pharmaceutical supply.  Locally hospitals form oligopolies.  (Hospitals are an obvious choice for regulated utility.)  Finally, a limited supply of doctors and other medical personnel creates an effective oligopoly to health care consumers.   Production of health care is restricted, driving up prices. Buying from the oligopoly will not change this, and indeed can be expected to further drive up prices. 

For industries requiring a high level of maintenance of resources, such as farming, further regulation might be required of producers, to prevent depletion of assets in efforts to temporarily acquire extra normal profits.  Progressive taxation would be helpful here, since it increases the present value of future returns, rather than exploitation of the resource for immediate returns.

Tuesday, April 26, 2011

Links on the rich, taxes, education 11-04-26

Here are some links:

http://www.altweeklies.com/aan/9-things-the-rich-dont-want-you-to-know-about-taxes/Story?oid=3971382

Progressive taxes are unfair?

http://crookedtimber.org/2011/04/25/the-flip-side-of-noble-lie-side-economics/#more-19786

James Kroeger's comments offer an interesting argument: The rich are no richer even though they're richer. Because they're richer they drive the price of everything rich people like up, so there's no real gain in it for them. He argues therefore, that a (proper) progressive system, without loopholes, doesn't change the actual purchasing power of anybody. I don't think it is quite true, because the flip side of the argument is the poor are no poorer even though they're poorer. Because they're poorer the price of everything they need goes down, so there's no real loss to them. Mmm... Something else is going on... Still, worth the read.


This is a review of Hacker and Pierson’s book “Winner-Take-All Politics”

http://www.economist.com/blogs/democracyinamerica/2010/09/hacker_and_pierson_inequality

Here’s a fun little tax toy, but not to be taken too seriously, as nobody who makes $10 Million pays 36.3% of his income on taxes. (As we have shown elsewhere, http://anamecon.blogspot.com/2010/10/what-income-of-top-1-means-to-rest-of.html the rich pay on average about 17%.)

http://www.wheredidmytaxdollarsgo.com/

This is a piece on the financial problems besetting the nation’s public universities, particularly discussing the University of California.

http://realignmentproject.wordpress.com/2009/07/23/the-balance-wheel-of-social-machinery-universal-public-higher-education/

Part of the problem here, which I mentioned somewhere else, is the equalization of factor prices due to free trade, which eventually propagates throughout an entire economy. However, those sectors of an economy more exposed to international competition ‘equalize’ faster, most labor in particular. This implies that those sectors more insulated from international competition rise relative to the exposed sectors. (The exposed sectors are, in real terms, declining. Since this does not appear so much nominally to be the case, a great deal must be accounted for by hidden inflation. We should not be surprised then, at the steady increase in gasoline prices.) This accounts for part of the relative rise in costs of public education in particular, and government in general, as the tax base is eroded by declining wages, which are converging to the wages of developing countries, like China.

How economists can consider this a good thing entirely escapes me. Well, not entirely. This also accounts for part of the relative rise in health care costs. It also helps account for some of the housing bubble, the price collapse due to lack of demand due to decreased earnings by labor.