Do the Wealthy need the Middle Class?

Can the Wealthy, by Themselves, Sustain the Demand of an Economy?

Can the wealthy own too much?

Paul Krugman, back in 2008, could find:” … there’s no obvious reason why consumer demand can’t be sustained by the spending of the upper class — $200 dinners and luxury hotels create jobs, the same way that fast food dinners and Motel 6s do. “

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/12/17/do-we-need-the-middle-class/

What we are seeing today, with the combination of rising income inequality and  unemployment, is the inability of the wealthy to do this. They cannot, of themselves, provide enough demand to keep the economy at full employment.  We are also seeing it in Europe, with the economic damage inflicted by wide spread austerity.  After all, the wealthy, including many wealthy bondholders, are unable to sustain economic demand in the face of shrinking payrolls and public expenditures.

In order to sustain demand, the wealthy would have to spend almost as much as they earned, even as does much of the middle and lower class.  And they would have to spend it mostly on the productive economy, and not just on real estate and such.  That would just be the churning of existing assets, and add a minimum of jobs. And this production would necessarily involve the massive production of useless, or at least unused, artifacts. That is, this production would largely have to be economic waste. The wealthy already do the best they can to be wasteful, with their yachts and multiple mansions, luxury hotels and yes, $200 dinners, but they are already failing, and it is only going to get worse, as income becomes increasingly concentrated and mal-distributed.

Indeed, we can characterize wealth by the extravagance and wastefulness of its expenditures.  Since this extravagance represents an economic loss to the rest of the economy,  the greater the concentration of wealth and its expenditures, the greater the waste, and the poorer the economy. (So there is a tax multiplier not just on the quantity of wealth, but on the quality of its expenditures.)

The wealthy are actually poorer if they keep this wealth and income to themselves.  After all, they basically control the government, so all public goods are essentially already under their control. So the decline of infrastructure is a decline of their wealth. The only thing missing is the formal privatization of ownership. Thus the progression is not just the increased concentration of true wealth, although there is some of this, but the increased individuation of ownership of the assets of society. That is, the wealthy already hold in common the essential assets of society, including the so called public ones, if not formally then informally.  However, they seek to exploit these assets in a non-sustainable way, thus destroying the commons on which all depend.  

And because of the multiplier effect, the synergy of common effort having results greater than the sum of individual efforts, much of their own wealth depends on the perpetuation of this commons.

Consider what the rich already own.  The increased concentration of wealth can only constitute, collectively, an essential meanness among the wealthy, or, if you will, a meanness of the system, seeking to take from those who have much less, even what they have.  

We can suppose that everything is owned by the rich, and is just to service the rich.  It then comes down to how much the rich are willing to pay the help.  And the answer seems to be, among our current crop of wealthy, not much. They keep insisting on paying less. The fact is, with the economy in a shortfall of demand, even with the ability to pay more, our wealthy will not.

The further problem is that by depleting the middle class, they are also destroying the market required for  most of those individually owned assets to have a positive return.  After all, it is rich people who own fast food restaurants and Motel 6s, and from whose profits they buy their yachts. They will not profit if no one has the money for fast food restaurants, or Motel 6s. If we look at a ghetto, all of those ruined buildings were once owned by wealthy people, either for dwelling or for income.  If they cause the ghetto-ization of their world, they will not be the wealthier for it. 

The Poor Help Prop up the Middle Class

Push up economics:  Many conservative middle class voters are resentful of the poor, thinking them shiftless and lazy, paying no taxes and often instead collecting unjustified income from the government.  71 percent of Republicans, for instance, in a recent poll, said “they believed the poor should not be exempt from income taxes.”   Well, the poor are not ‘exempt.’   They just don’t make enough income to make it to the positive tax rate.  Do any of the middle class want to trade places with the poor?

The middle class should be grateful to the poor, and the labor they provide.  The poor often work hard, for mean wages, making a significant contribution to middle class welfare.   Also, as consumers, the poor purchase an important portion of the production of the middle class, and help keep the members of the middle class in business and employed.  Many middle class businesses, and their employees, owe their profit margins, and continuing business, to the purchases of the poor. The poor represent at least 15% of the population, and even if their purchasing power is much less, it is enough to make a difference.  And they provide other opportunities for middle class income and activity.  By cutting off supports to the poor, or by raising taxes on the poor, the middle class will do themselves no favor.  Indeed, instead, by providing more opportunity to the poor, by improving their welfare, the middle class will improve their own situation.

More money comes up to the middle class from the poor, than comes down to them from the wealthy.  Indeed, the wealthy take their profit from the middle class.

For a nice summary of some of the functions poverty and the poor serve for the rest of society,  and in particular the middle class, see Herbert J Gans:  “The Uses of Poverty: The Poor Pay All.”: http://www.sociology.org.uk/as4p3.pdf

Things are Worse than they Look

Here are a couple of neat pointers: The first goes to a article at a good blog, which points to an interactive feature at the EPI (Economic Policy Institute) website.

http://crookedtimber.org/2011/02/10/income-growth-shares-over-time/

A commenter at CT links to:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=akVL7QY0S8A

a lecture by Elizabeth Warren titled: “The Coming Collapse of the Middle Class: Higher Risks, Lower Rewards, and a Shrinking Safety Net.” This is a good and informative lecture. Well worth the time.

Who do you owe - An answer.

Well, look what we came across:

http://www.oftwominds.com/blogjuly10/con-of-decade07-10.html

Not easy to navigate to Part II: Go to bottom of page, click on 'blog,'
then down that page to the list of entries for July.

Who do you owe?

There is much ado about debt, these days. The debt. Like it is owed to space aliens or something. It's not. It's some people 'owing' to other people. Lots of 'owing,' these days, which is why it is a 'problem.' This owing is kept track of in something called money, so it's some people owing lots of money to other people. The probelm is made worse by soemthing called 'interest,' which is the arrangement where, if you owe money for any length of time, then you owe more money. So if you owe money, and you don't pay it back, you owe more money, and MORE money, and MORE MONEY and, and...

Well, we'll get into that some other time. First, we ask the questions. And the first question we ask is, who owes what to whom? Which is really three questions, so let's first ask who is the money owed to. There are numerous possibilities. We can eliminate space aliens. We can also eliminate the poor. If they were owed the money, they would be rich. How about the middle class? No, they seem to be drowning in debt. How about our government. But we all know it's up to its ears in debt. Of course, there are also rich governments, who seem to be owed a lot of money. But that much? No.

So who does that leave us? Hmm? The rich. But we've got to be talking the really rich. Even the median of the top quintile, for which I have data (2004) owes $167K, though net worth of $318K. The really rich seem to be owed all that money.

And we've also answered the question of who owes. The poor, the middle class, and the government.

But what do they owe? Lots of money. Debt to GDP is at about 380%, of which 290% is
privately owed. So GDP ~$14T x 3.8 = $53T/300M people = $177K per capita, as of 2008. $354K per worker. Now $42K per capita of that is the public debt, so $354K - $84K = $270K per worker is the private debt. Now the interest on the public debt is (now) 0%, sort of, and let's figure the interest on the private debt to average out to 6%, which is probably low, since AAA bonds are yielding a little over 5% interest. So $16.2K in interest. $16,200. Interest per worker. That's all going where? The company store? Sixteen tons?

Take a step back: 6% on 290% of the GDP means $2.44T or 17% of the GDP goes to interest payments, aka debt service. Non wonder demand is somewhat contracted. And the interest on the US debt is not really 0%, so we probably should add a percent or two.

Just by the way $53T is slightly more than the value of all the assets in the US.

Now of course, this isn't owed one person to another, this is all owed to banks. $16.2K to the banks. But apparently many banks aren't doing all that well, so who do the banks owe? Well, they 'owe' their owners, they owe their bondholders, and they owe their depositors. Now their depositors aren't getting much in the way of interest. So all the interest must be going to the bondholders, and the owners. But if the banks are still in trouble, that means it must be the bondholeres who are getting all the money. Owners are just making up their losses, recapitalizing their balance sheets. (Are they? And who does own the banks?) Bondholders must just love this deflation we're having.

Well, we've spun our wheels a little bit here, and it's hard to find out who owns what. But if you own a lot, you're probably owed a lot. And you're rich.

So if you owe, you owe probably owe the rich. Or maybe some pension fund. Another possibility, among others.