Showing posts with label community. Show all posts
Showing posts with label community. Show all posts

Monday, July 31, 2017

Generalizations in Interpreting Supply and Demand Diagrams

In a recent post Hidden Benefits of Taxes we argued that while a tax wedge reduced allocative efficiency, it increased productive efficiency.  With a tax wedge,  a portion of the remaining Social Surplus was allocated to the government, the Harberger Triangle in the diagram being discarded since it was no longer being (inefficiently) produced.  Inefficient production is a waste of resources, often irreplaceable ones.  For a very nice post on this issue, see this book review of:  "Capitalism 3.0 A Guide To Reclaiming The Commons" https://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_sb_noss_2?url=search-alias%3Dstripbooks&field-keywords=Capitalism+3.0 (2006) book by Peter Barnes,over at Portrait of the Dumbass

So.  Consider the situation where the source of a product, the factory or the mine, is far from the consumer, and the cost of transport is significant.
The shipper must cover the cost of transport, so the price the consumer is going to have to pay will be much higher than the shipper pays the producer.  We also observe that the quantity bought from the producer will ordinarily be the same as the quantity sold to the consumer.  And we see that if we draw a diagram of the entire process, including the cost of transport, we have an identical diagram as if we had a tax wedge:  The wedge now going to cover the costs of transport, instead of going to government coffers.

Now the wedge covers all transport costs T so we can consider it as the resources consumed to include those that are necessary to support the capital involved in the transport.  This would as well include any retained surplus. What was actually surplus and what was cost to the shipper is not yet defined by the diagram.  Where the infrastructure costs are zero,  the wedge is merely the costs incurred by the shipper.

We note that high transport costs imply that the productive costs must be low, since only the most eager and wealthy of consumers are willing to pay the high prices for the product. Productive efficiency, per se, must be high.  There is thus a large Allocative loss, but also correspondingly large deferred costs.

Now, where transport costs are low, we see that there is still a market for those goods which are produced at a higher cost, with less efficient processes, among those with a lower inclination to pay.  With a lowering of transport costs, there is an increase in allocative efficiency, a reduction in allocative loss, and a reduction of productive efficiency

However, there is another way of looking at low transport costs.  We can say that lower amount of resources given over to transportation support a smaller infrastructure.

So we can consider a rectangular wedge in any situation where there is a cost between supplier and consumer, and the quantity supplied does not change.

Now we will define a community to consist of consumers and the local businesses to support them. The supplier will input into this community.
The supplier will sell to the local businesses, who sell the input to the consumers.  The difference between the price the businesses pay and the price the consumers pay the businesses, times the quantity supplied by the businesses, is seen to support the businesses.

The interesting thing is that the size of this wedge, that is, the size of the business sector in the community, depends on the inefficiencies involved in the conveyance of the input from the suppliers to the consumers.   A totally efficient conveyance between supplier and consumer would eliminate any business sector in the community.


The point is, while from one point of view this wedge is wasted resources, from another point of view it supports the business sector of the community. And from that point of view it is not wasted at all.  Indeed, let us look at the worst possible alternative to the community:  Suppose a more efficient supplier is able to provide inputs directly to the consumer, at just below the price community business would have been able to supply them.  We see that the consumer is marginally better off, but the business sector of the community has essentially been destroyed.  Virtually the entire surplus has been absorbed by the supplier, and the surplus which would have gone into the community to support the business sector is denied the community..



Where the transport costs become low, it may become in the interests of the society to increase the tax wedge, in order to maintain productive efficiency.  And see the previous discussion at http://anamecon.blogspot.com/2017/05/hidden-benefits-of-taxes.html

Thursday, January 16, 2014

Walmart, Oligopoly and Community Economy



We wish to estimate the effects of a Walmart on a community economy. Some of the general considerations of: http://anamecon.blogspot.com/2012/05/sound-you-dont-hear-is-sound-of-money.html are here made more concrete.

 Figures for Walmart are taken or calculated from: http://wallstcheatsheet.com/stocks/top-30-retailers-of-2013.html/?a=viewall  We will see Walmart has about 3200 stores in the US, approximately one store per 100,000 people, which we will consider the size of the community we are interested in. It’s a size most people can relate to.

We have, for 2012  $328,704,000    US Sales for Walmart.
USA % of total Sales is 70%, from 4570 Stores Worldwide
So we estimate the number of US stores at about 3200. 
That’s about 1 store per 100,000 people.

Walmart has 1.4 Million employees in the US, so we can estimate about 300 employees per store.  (We’re including the employees at the 158 distribution centers and the Headquarters.  It won’t affect the main conclusions. If anything, it will lead to them being understated.)

We have: sales (revenue) per person at $1100, or $110,000,000 per our community of 100,000 people.
(Walmart makes $236,000 in revenue per employee. Keep that in mind when we talk about employee pay.)

From the table here:
http://smallbiztrends.com/2010/11/how-much-money-do-small-business-owners-make.html we find that in the retail trade, the average owner makes about $63,000 on just over $3,000,000 in sales.
We go over to:  Statistics about Business Size (including Small Business) from the US Census Bureau, (data for 2007) and page:  http://www.census.gov/econ/susb/  It seems to be the latest figures, so we’re going to assume that the relevant figures have not changed all that much since then.  (They have, but in ways which won’t affect the argument much.)

From the Excel spreadsheet ‘US all industries,’ downloaded from that page, line 19464 etc, we have data in a different form.  We take the bin that contains the average receipts for retail establishments, line 19469: firms whose receipts are between $2.5 Million and $4,999,999, and use the figures from that bin.  We estimate the average retail establishment has somewhere around 12 employees, with average pay of around $25,000, or a payroll per firm of about $300,000.  Ballpark figures, and on the conservative side, I think.  

which quotes Glassdoor.com, puts the average at about $18,000 for a sales associate at Walmart   From the Excel spreadsheet, line 19482, we get an average salary for employees in retail firms with receipts over $100,000,000, of which Walmart is one, of a little over $22,000.  We’ll use that figure instead, though it includes the salaries of the bosses in Bentonville, Arkansas, and so is  higher than the average store worker makes. It’s bad enough.

So that’s the data we’ll use.  What can we conclude?

First, how many small businesses are wiped out when a Walmart moves in?  Well, as we see, average receipt for a small retailer is $3 Million, so $110,000,000* would support, say 35 such businesses.  That’s most of a downtown. Since small businessmen are much of a community’s leadership, the social consequences are far beyond the mere economic consequences. Indeed, this destruction of these leadership opportunities in a community is perhaps the most pernicious effect of a Walmart moving in.

Walmart says they provide jobs.  However, we estimated the average small retailer employs 12 people, which times 35 retail establishments gives a total of 420 jobs.  Walmart provides about 300 jobs for a net loss of 120 jobs. 

What about payroll? Our local retailers provide 420 times $25,000, or a payroll of $10.5 Million.  Walmart provides 300 jobs at $22,000, for payroll of $6.6 Million.  Or about $4 Million less. This $4 Million is taken out of the community, which money would otherwise remain.  That $4 Million is enough to support another 40 jobs at $100,000 per job. (This is the average capital required to support jobs of all types.)   So the total loss in employment is about 160 jobs, which if we consider about 50,000 persons of our community of 100,000 to be in the labor force, adds almost 1/3 of 1% to the unemployment rate in our community.

(Admittedly, this calculation is hugely sensitive to the number we take as the average number of employees in the average retail firm. If we instead take 10 as the average number, the displaced payroll is only 350, for a net of only 50 lost jobs, 70 lost jobs if we include the effect of loss of capital.  If 14 it is 490, for a net of 190 lost jobs, over 240 counting the loss of capital effect.)

Of course, Walmart provides income and employment to Bentonville, Arkansas and the surrounding area, but this is small compensation to the thousands of communities which are not Bentonville.   And similarly for other large corporations.  Their headquarters are surrounded by islands of prosperity, created by the extraction of money from other communities, which are materially poorer for their efforts.  

That’s just Walmart.  If we consider the top 30 retailers, their combined total revenue is $1320 Billion, about 4 times that of Walmart alone, or say about $4,400 per capita.  That is 1/3 of all retail business in the US is done by the top 30 firms. (The total revenue of all retail firms is about $13,000 per capita. Of course, all the top 30 retailers are not present in all communities. But this is still the average effect, though the reality is ‘lumpier.’)  This indicates that organization, that is, the organization of the retail industry into oligopoly, accounts for over 1% of the unemployment rate, or about 600 jobs in our community of 100,000.  About ¾ % is direct reduction in payroll, and ¼ %, or 160 jobs, is due to $16 Million capital being taken out of the community by combined reduction in payroll in the community by the largest 30 retailers.

Finally, we note that the 30 largest retailers combine to eliminate, and replace, about 140 local retailers from our community of 100,000, (about $440,000,000 divided by $3,000,000.) 

Since retail is about 6% of the economy, we might think that if the entire economy were organized into similar oligopolistic structure,** the unemployment rate would be about 16 to 20% greater than- what?-  minus 10%? This seems impossible. Clearly, some oligopolistic organization is required to maintain the output of the economy at its current level. Indeed, in the absence of large corporations, labor would not be sufficiently organized to produce enough to sustain our current level of consumption. (Actually, we would expect the increase in unemployment to be much greater than 20%, since we are only figuring the contribution of the very largest firms, and not, say, the 20,000 largest firms in the US, all of which are over $100,000,000 in receipts.)  However, increasing the degree of oligopoly beyond a point will increase the unemployment rate while at the same time creating an excess of supply.  (This increase in degree of oligopoly is one change from the 2007 data we might expect.) Note this is a purely a structural effect.  So we would expect greater scale of organization, to a point, the point of diminishing returns, to increase supply.  Beyond that point, increasing scale will result in a decrease in supply.  Ordinarily, we would expect negative feedback about that point.  That is, we would expect a tendency for scale of organization to settle at that point.   

However, it is the tendency of oligopoly, unchecked, to concentrate into fewer and fewer firms. This is because, as we have noted elsewhere, the tendency for oligopolies to collect extra-normal profits, or rents.  An oligopolistic company thus expands, and accumulates power, at a rate greater than companies in more competitive industries.  There is thus external pressure on industries to organize as oligopolies, since an industry which fails to do so will lose power and influence relative to those industries which do concentrate.   

 Now we have not discussed the increase in consumer's surplus, brought by the lower prices, which motivates, for a community, the intrusion of a Walmart into that community.  That we will discuss in a subsequent post.    

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*The fact that the average single Walmart store has receipts greater than the lowest margin of the top bin in the table ($100,000,000 receipts) highlights the limits of the Census data presentation, and so the limits of its usefulness.  
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**The data from the table seems to imply at least a comparable degree of oligopoly through out the economy.  In retail, firms over $100,000,000 account for 62% of all retail receipts.  For all private industry, the comparable figure for receipts for all firms over $100,000,000 is 68%.  So, if anything, the rest of the economy would seem to be, on average, more oligopolistic than retail.   However, for the entire economy, the average pay for the average firm seems to be about $35,000, whereas the average pay for firms over $100,000,000 is $50,000.   We can still have it both ways, though.  Consider, the $22,000 average pay for retail.  Included in this average is the salary of the bosses at the corporate HQ, so the average in a given store is much less.  Similarly, we can consider the average of large corporations in other industries, in the communities in which they operate, ie get their receipts, as opposed to the communities in which they have their headquarters, to be less than the average for that industry. Or, more precisely, to be less than, or at least comparable to, the average of the average sized firm.  This is so in order for them to compete, locally, despite the larger corporate overhead.  Of course, there are other savings, but these can all be considered as reductions in compensation to operational employees, along the chains of supply.  For instance, a large corporation will have its own warehousing, but the cost of labor for this warehousing must be less than the local competition. Increases in efficiency can only save so much, and will eventually be copied. (Referring to the previous post, efficiency is a multiplicative factor. It is necessarily less than 1, and can only be increased at ever increasing expense.)  Other things being equal, then, this means its compensation for its warehouse employees must be less. (But consider Costco. It pays its employees more, so we  must consider that it employs them more efficiently.)  Similarly for its factories and transport, on average.   Where research and product development are also involved, the savings in overhead for production must be even greater. 

Thus a large corporation will (almost) always take more, in the case of stores, or in the case of factories, add less, than a locally run business, to a local economy. In fact, consider a corporation purchasing a local business.  It is the belief of the purchasing corporation that the local business is undervalued by its local owners, else it wouldn’t buy it.  That is, that more can be extracted from the local business’ community, in the case of a store, or, in the case of a factory, less put into the community, than is currently being done by the local owners.    

Tuesday, May 8, 2012

The Extraction of Money from Communities in the New Economy





     The sound you don’t hear is the sound of money being sucked out of your community.  But you can see it.   Walmart is merely the biggest.  Target, Home Depot and Lowes.  Best Buy.  Staples.  McDonald’s and Wendy’s, Burger King.  The old standards like  Penny’s and  Sears. Even  PetCo,  Starbucks and ToysRUs. CVS and Walgreen’s.  The grocery chains.  Shell and Mobil and Sunoco.  And then of course  the big banks, Bank of America ,Wells Fargo, the rest.  They are pervasive.    Everywhere. 

      And what are they?  They are all extractive industries. 

      And that is what they extract?  Money.  Money from your community.

      And this is a new thing, this reorganization of the American economy.  It used to be, in the days of mom and pop stores, of locally owned factories and family farming, of small banking, that more of the money remained in the community, helping to maintain the flow of resources within and through the local economy. Factories and farms brought in the money.  Returns of production costs of the product went to the community.  Merely the cost of the materials which it used in manufacturing went outside the community, and this it recouped through the price of selling. The community also retained the profit, when the owner of the factory was local. See Diag 1, the factory in the Old Economy. (The sizes of the arrows within each diagram are merely indicative.  The important thing is the difference in sizes of the arrows between the diagrams.  Remember also the flow of money is opposite to the flow of goods and services.  When goods go out of the factory, and are sold in the Rest of the World, money flows in.)  The factory is a part of the community.  The factory brings money into the community by selling its product to the Rest of the World outside the community.  The only money it exports is for the material and energy which goes into making that product.  The rest of the money goes either to the workers, or to the owner.
      The workers, and the owner, who was a part of the community, spend some of their money in the Rest of the World, but spend most of their money in the community.  It is thus more likely that the amount of money retained by the community is greater than the money which leaves the community.  So the community prospers and grows.   
(Note, however, it grows by extracting money from other communities.  With a constant money supply, this is a zero sum game.   One community’s gain is another community’s loss.  Indeed, for a community to grow without deflation, it must have an influx of money.   And it is difficult for a community to grow with deflation, because under deflation, on average, businesses are nominally losing money.)

      The ‘Old Economy’ is no longer.  Now the profit goes to the headquarters of the giant corporations.  And to their owners, who take the money extracted from your community and spend it in theirs.   This makes their communities prosperous, while yours declines. See Diag 2, the factory in the New Economy.  The diagram is really no more complicated. All the flows of money are in the same directions. The extra solid arrows indicate increases in money being spent.  The clear arrows indicate money which is no longer being spent.  Thus in Diag 2.  the extra arrow going from the factory to the Rest of the World is the increase in costs due to the fact that the factory must buy its factors from oligopolies, while the clear arrow indicates money lost due to increased competition and the fact that it must sell to oligopsonies in the Rest of the World.  The money going to the owner does not necessarily change, but now, since the corporate owner is no longer in the community, the profits from the factory also leave the community.  Facing oligopsony, the Factory’s return is minimized, reducing profits and forcing the reduction of overhead.  This means replacing workers with machines.  So the capital costs leave the community, and the lost jobs reduce income to the community.  The clear arrow from the Factory to the workers in the community represents the reduction in income to the community due to decreased payrolls, a result of increases in productivity and mechanization.  Since the workers, as well as the factory, are now buying from oligopolies, more money leaves the community through them, and the clear arrow to the community indicates that less is retained by the community.  Thus the direction of the flows are the same, but the quantities are different, with more of the money from the operation of the factory leaving the community, and less staying in the community.  
      
      While it is possible for this community to also be prosperous, it is more likely, than in the old economy, that it is not, but rather that more money is being taken out of the community than is coming in.  It is still possible for the factory to be operating at a profit, that is the money coming into the factory is greater than the money going into the rest of the world and the workers. The owner is then making a profit.  However, it is more likely, than in the old economy, that the money going to the workers is also less than that leaving the community.  Thus, the community would be in decline.

      We can make a similar comparison of diagrams between old and new economies by studying the flow of money through their respective stores.  In the old economy, the store is locally owned, in the new, corporately owned. 

      Consider Diag 3, the store in the Old Economy.  The store is locally owned.    Money comes into the community from outside, say through a factory.  It could be farm production, or just the returns from the labor of members of the community in other communities.  Some is spent at the store, some circulates through the community, some leaves the community through other channels.  Of the money spent in the store, some goes to the Rest of the World, that money the store spends on products there.  But much, even most, is retained by the community, as wages, as profit to the local owner, as money paid to local producers.  Of the profits paid to the owner, some are spent in the Rest of the World, some spent in the community.  In any case, a relatively high percentage of the money spent in the store remains in the community. 

      Compare this to Diag 4, the store in the New Economy, in a ‘typical’ modern community.   This is the chain store, owned by a distant corporate owner. (Some of these are franchises, locally owned, but all sending a cut to the distant corporation.)  Again, the diagram is really no more complicated than the first one, the store in the old economy.     The flows of money are all in the same direction.   The added solid arrows indicate an increase in the flow of money, the clear arrows a decrease.  Money comes into the community from outside, through what the community produces.   This may be farm production, the production of a factory, or the labor of members of the community in other communities.  This is reduced from before (clear arrow from Rest of World to Community,) because the Community faces oligopsonies.  With a chain store, there is an increase in flow into the Rest of the World.  First, of course, the profits of the store go to the corporate owner, and leave the community.   This is also indicated by the clear arrow from the Corporation to the Community.   Second, there is little or nothing bought from local producers, so that arrow now points into the Rest of the World. Finally, there is the increase in money due to the fact that the goods the store buys are now bought from oligopolies, and thus at a higher cost. 

      
       This last needs to be discussed, because it is not so clear cut. While the chain store faces oligopolies, it is often an element of an oligopsony, and thus can command lower prices for the goods it buys.  Further, there is the natural savings due to trade.  (But this tends to drive out the local producers.) What is certain that it can, with its volume purchases, command prices from its suppliers lower than a locally owned store, and thus put the locally owned store at a competitive disadvantage.  This reduction is indicated by the clear arrow from the community to the store.  Indeed, because of this, the chain, so far as it presents substitutable goods, tends to drive the locally owned store out of business, and replace it.

      But to continue, the chain store, where it is larger than its competitors, can reduce labor costs two ways.  First, through more efficient labor practices, that is selling a greater volume of goods per unit of labor, and second through oligopsony in the labor market, driving down the costs of labor to a minimum.  It tends to drive wages down to the minimum, actually.    This is indicated by the clear arrow from the store to the workers.   Since the workers also face oligopoly in the rest of the world, the flow of money from the workers to the Rest of the World increases.  Together these factors reduce the amount of money the workers circulate in the community.  This needs to be discussed.

      The cost of labor to the store is really a zero sum for the community.  The greater the labor costs, the more the community must pay.  The less the labor costs, the less the community must pay. But in either case, the money comes back to the community as wages paid to the workers.   So it is really only a factor in the chain store competing against local businesses, lower labor costs allowing lower pricing and thus greater competition against the local business.  This forces down the price of labor in the local businesses, so long as they remain competitive.  It does change the distribution of money in the local community, reducing the share available to low wage earners, but this is another matter. 

      Aside from the differences due to oligopoly and oligopsony, the two major differences are the profits  leaving the community to the corporate owners,  and the money that leaves the community instead of going to local producers.  As in the new factory economy, the bottom line is the increase in money flowing out of the community, and the decrease in money flowing into the community, making it more likely, than in the old economy, that the community may be losing money rather than gaining it, and so be in decline.  If we realize that a prosperous community is only a few percentage points to the good, that is, the community typically makes only a small ‘profit,’ this is a significant difference, and may mean the difference between success and failure.

      And a successful community may be an extractive community, that is, one that relies on the extraction of resources from other communities.  We have indicated how successful factory communities extract money from other communities.  But we look now at Diag 5, the Store in Owner Communities.  

      The arrows have been simplified and reduced, but otherwise it is the same as Diag 4, except the corporate owner is a part of this community, and is responsible for a great influx of money into the community.  Indeed, the owner may be the major, or even the only source of money to the community. (By owner here, corporate owner, we don’t necessarily mean just the owner per se.  For instance, in a community with a corporate headquarters located in it, all the staff of the headquarters would be included under the term ‘owner.’  Even a corporate engineering office would qualify, (although that could also be analyzed as a factory, as could the headquarters itself.)  Not that they are necessarily actually owners, but rather that their employment is dependent on the flow of money from distant stores and factories.)   

      In any case, the inflow the sum of profits extracted from many communities, is more likely greater than the outflow.  For oligops living in communities distant from the ones they exploit, the fate of these other communities is secondary to their profits. 
      
      And what are the symptoms of excessive extraction? 

      Well, you can tell the poor communities, because few of the extractors mine there.  The money is gone. The ore has been played out.   Oh, perhaps the inferior extractors, like Dollar Tree, or Family Dollar, or the Payday Loan check stops, still plough the poor soil.  But the better ones, even many of the not so good ones, have left.   Those that require the rich ore, the high end extractors, the Bergdorf’s, the Saks, the fashion boutiques, the Abercrombie & Fitchs, the Aeropostales,  who require higher margins from their smaller volume;  the Apple stores, have long gone, if they ever came.        
   
      A community  may benefit from trade, where it is a net producer of goods, but this is increasingly difficult.    Free trade exposes a community to oligopsony and oligopoly.  Oligopsony minimizes the benefits the community receives from its own production, whether it be factory, or farming, or mining.   Oligopoly maximizes the extractions from the community, of goods sold in the community.   So a community may suffer from trade, even when it remains a producer.  It will likely benefit, where it is an extractor/owner community, but theses are comparatively few.  A community either benefits from the advantages of trade, or instead suffers extraction, of which a deficit in the public budget, is one aspect.  As money is sucked out of the community, unemployment rises, and locally owned businesses decline.    The tax base erodes. The schools decline, and maintenance of roads and infrastructure deteriorates.     The public commonweal is destroyed.

      Corporations are not interested in the typical communities of America, except as a source for the extraction of money.  Indeed, according to Milton Friedman, their only social responsibility is to increase their profits.  That is, their interest is in the destruction of the community.  Look at Apple.  They send their jobs to China and their profits to Lichtenstein.  They do not love America.  America to them  exists only to be exploited.   Their store is here.  They are interested in investing in stores here, but not so much in factories.  This is because in a community which is still a source of extraction, which still has money, everything costs more.  And this means the cost of labor, and thus the cost of production, is higher. 

      That is why corporations are not investing in America, except in extractive industries.  They are not investing in producing in America, because it means investing in the communities of America, and they have yet to be depleted by the extractive actions of these same corporations.  The costs are high, because of oligopoly, and the returns are low, because of oligopsony, oligopoly and oligopsony these corporations themselves inflict.  

      As for the extractors, they cannot spend their money fast enough.  And, because they cannot spend it fast enough, they put it in banks, often overseas.   From there, it makes its way back to the front banks in the US, where it is loaned to members of your community, and the interest is extracted.  Or they invest it in other extractive industries, other retail chains, or factories overseas.  The products of these factories are used to extract money from the communities in which they are sold. And the money from the production of these products, no longer made by factories in the community, is extracted by these overseas factories.   And the cost of shipping from overseas is also extracted.

      We come to an interesting conclusion.  As long as there is money to be extracted, extractors will come, with their stores, and seek to extract that money from the community.  (But worse is Amazon, which you do not see.   Amazon spends nothing in your community.  The entire monetary value of the imported product is extracted from the community.  Because those brick and mortar stores you do see spend most of their overhead in their respective communities, at least the community retains that, and the damage is less.  But Amazon and the rest of the mail order companies spend nothing, and are engaged in pure extraction.)

       And the members of the community become a party to the destruction of their community, and their own destruction.  Because the extractors do not bear the cost of supporting the community, they can sell at lower prices.  And the members of the community, in perceived self interest, benefit from these lower prices.   But their community does not, because the money saved is merely spent at other stores, and still exported from the community.  Not enough money is retained by the community to maintain the money supply in the community, and that supply declines, along with the community welfare. It could be said that the community consumes itself to death, as increasingly each act of consumption, in the New Economy, costs the community money.